The Australian Open champion has won two of her last three tournaments and heads to Flushing Meadows as the potential favorite.
Until recently, there wasn’t much in Jessica Pegula’s 2024 that recalled her 2023. She had a new coach, and her results didn’t resemble those of a Top 5 player, which she was for the entirety of last year. An encouraging start to the grass season ended with a second-round loss at Wimbledon. Her Olympics were dismal, taking second-round losses in singles and doubles. Plain and simple, she was not a factor at the tournaments that mattered the most to her, to her fans and to her critics.
Then came Canada. Starting in Toronto, Pegula reeled off nine consecutive wins to defend her National Bank Open title and reach the Cincinnati Open final. Between the two 1000-level hard-court tournaments, she looked confident again, in her own, grinding way. She looked like a player that, on the right day, could beat anyone. She looked like, for the first time, Pegula circa 2023.
Then came Monday in Cincy. And even though this day didn’t go Pegula’s way, her 6-3, 7-5 loss to an in-form Aryna Sabalenka recalled something else from 2023: the WTA Finals. In that event, the American won four straight-set matches—including one over Sabalenka—before being routed in the final by Iga Swiatek.
Result
Despite her renaissance run, the 30-year-old will likely take little comfort from racking up nine wins rather than 10. Sabalenka (and, for that matter, Swiatek) is the type of player Pegula will have to find a way past in order to achieve her ultimate goal of winning a Grand Slam title. Those are the standards she has set, even if she has yet to reach a Grand Slam semifinal in six tries.
But if Pegula, or any player, runs into this version of Sabalenka in the final four of a major? Forget about it.
The two-time defending Australian Open champion was automatic on serve. In the first set, Sabalenka won 15 of her 17 first-serve points, and Pegula put just six returns into play, per Tennis Channel. She broke Pegula just once, but it was more than enough to take what felt like a commanding lead.
By the time Sabalenka reached 6-3, 5-3, she had won 27 or her 29 first-serve points (93.1%).
“I’m not sure anyone can withstand this, when a player is playing this well,” said Tennis Channel’s Lindsay Davenport of Sabalenka, referencing top-ranked Swiatek’s 6-3, 6-3 semifinal loss to the big-hitting Belarusian.
Sabalenka will head into the US Open having won the last hard-court major, and winning two hard-court tune-up tournaments (Washington, D.C. and Cincinnati).
But just like Sabalenka did against Swiatek, she tightened up when the match looked all but over. It didn’t take her 10 match points, but she was broken out of nowhere, and was on the brink of letting Pegula and the partisan U.S. crowd back into this final.
Just as quickly, though, the world No. 3 broke Pegula right back, and served out the contest. Both will head to Flushing Meadows with confidence, and with hardware from this summer stretch. But the tiebreaker goes to Sabalenka, even if she didn’t need to win one this Monday afternoon.
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